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  • Nov 9th, 2005
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Russia's leaders are being lulled into a sense of complacency by an oil price boom that has brought cash flooding into the economy, sapping their drive to attract foreign direct investment into key productive areas.

Economists say Moscow's increasing coolness towards foreign investors, especially in the oil and gas industry - now seen as the preserve of Russians, with outsiders in a subordinate role at best - could cost it dearly in the future.

"Russia is diving into complacency from the highest springboard," said Chris Weafer, a strategist at Alfa-Bank in Moscow. "And it's all built on fragile oil flows."

The hardening attitude marks Russia out from top emerging economies who have made attracting inward investment, especially in manufacturing, a top priority. It has also coincided with a halt to economic reforms.

Brazil and China, often grouped with Russia as nations likely to play a pivotal future role in world economic affairs, are actively wooing foreign direct investment (FDI).

"They (the Russians) have an extremely casual attitude to FDI. They do not see a need for it," said a senior official at a major bank. "It's unique for such a large emerging economy."

China attracted $5.25 billion in FDI in September alone, more than Russia got in the whole of 2004. Brazil's FDI in the first nine months of this year was just short of $12 billion.

Perhaps Russians cannot be entirely blamed for believing they are in a practically unassailable financial position as money gushes from their oil industry.

The country has never been so flush with cash. Foreign exchange reserves have shot up to a record $164 billion as billions of dollars are flowing into an official nest-egg known as the stabilisation fund, due to hit $50 billion by year-end.

A recent two-yearly conference in Moscow organised by the World Economic Forum proved to be a low-profile affair. The new mood of self-sufficiency was summed up by Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov's failure to show up at a news conference.

The contrast could hardly have been greater with an earlier Forum event in October 2003, when President Vladimir Putin fielded questions in a frank exchange with foreign investors.

That gathering was held only days before the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former head of oil firm YUKOS.

His imprisonment and the de facto nationalisation of part of his company was widely seen as a watershed, signalling Kremlin determination to be the arbiter of the oil and gas industry.

"They (the Russian government) don't need to attend these meetings to get money," said an adviser to a government minister who asked not to be identified. "They believe if they (foreigners) want to come they will beg us to let them invest."

Although FDI inflows are meagre, hot money has flooded into the Russian stock market, up nearly 60 percent so far this year.

Russian companies are raising billions of dollars through syndicated loans, bonds and initial public offerings (IPOs), mostly in London, but economists say these funds do not bring with them the new skills that Russia requires.

"It's not the type of investment Russia needs," said one international bank economist in London. "Other elements ... are much more important, like skills and technology transfer."

Foreign investment in retail and services has risen, but since BP bought a 49 percent stake in Russia's number two oil firm TNK in 2003, the door has firmly closed on foreigners buying big resource companies.

"Where they do see a possibility for foreign investors (in energy ventures) it's on an invitation basis," said a banker, adding that any foreign company investing in Russian oil and gas would be a minority partner acting strictly on Moscow's terms.

Problems are piling up as complacency takes hold.

One of the biggest challenges facing Russia is ensuring that new oil fields are brought onstream as old ones discovered in the Soviet era gradually become depleted.

Russia's tax system is doing little to encourage companies, Russia or Western, to invest in new oil developments.

"The tax system taxes everything you bring out of the ground and does not give any incentives to drill and explore," said Christof Ruehl, an economist at BP.

Without fresh investment in "greenfield" oil and gas projects Russia may struggle even to maintain mediocre economic growth rates of 4-5 percent which economists say are its due if Moscow fails to enact economic reforms and attract more FDI.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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